The Superior Intelligence

Generally Speaking

What do we mean ? - The superior intelligence would refer to a race of computers and robots completely different in ability and functionality of those of today. We expect computers to be able to learn better without human assistance, understand scenarios and react independently to events that they come across.

So what ? - Yes, traditional AI (artificial intelligence) programs already told us of smarter, better and more human friendly computer systems in the future, but to what level ? Traditional AI allows the computer to simply make use of information provided in ways the programmer already defined and act accordingly to them. All actions and creativity of those programs are only limited to those preset by programmers. What we are talking about, however, are computer programs that can learn from observation, apply it new knowledge to use ; that is they, possess the learning capabilities similar to any human being. That being said and given their efficient


Is it Possible ?

Software wise -Today's computer programs are already capable of learning like humans, by observation, by sounds and find their way around by trail and error. Some developers have already come up with robots that are capable of learning and behaving like a human infant. It is not mainly a problem of software that is hindering the progress of computer technology but the hardware aspect. Today's computers simply lack the processing power to match up to the human brain.

Hardware wise - We already mentioned the capability in computer processing power , compared to those of the human brain. By our estimate, today's very biggest super computers are within a factor of a hundred of having the power to mimic a human mind. It is only a matter of time before computers become even more powerful than the human brain.


How long will it take ?

Right after World War I, rapid improvements in electromechanical calculators was the first sign of the beginning of the electronics race. As electronic computers surfaced during the World War II, the computation speed to price ratio increased a millionfold.

Since we know that electricity needs to travel through a conductor, it only made sense that shorter, smaller circuits and conductors will enable the electricity to travel faster, hence improving speed of the electrical component.

Once the idea got through, the race to squeeze "more" into "less" created fierce competition between markets.Components which made use of vacuum tubes were abandoned, and transistors took their place. Then, the transistors themselves were replaced by faster and smaller integrated circuits. At some point, scientists warned that the "circuit squeezing days" were over as circuits reached 3 micrometers. Then, new manufacturing techniques came out and proved the scientists wrong. Computer circuit developments sped up even more !

As these integrated circuits get more and more packed with circuits that grew increasing smaller by the day, they became so integrated, that they actually became microchips . Today's microchips producers can squeeze a few million circuits and transistors all into a chip the size of a pin head !! The small problem involved here was that the less than 0.1 micrometer circuits were so fragile and heat sensitive that they would melt down when the chips get too hot. As a result, the chips are kept under controlled temperatures by intensive cooling. (E.g. liquid helium baths)

It was not long before the question of "how much more can we squeeze the circuits ?" popped up again. Circuit sizes seem to be reaching a size that seem too small to be compressed even more and even if they were, the heat heat and other electrical interference generated would destroy the fragile circuits and signals would leak from them.

The problem has fortunately found a new solution, by a technique that seem even more unlikely ; to shrink the circuits even more. Because traditional circuits still use the property of forcing massive loads of electrons along tiny little circuits, they cause great problems about the amount of interference they can take. With this new class of components known as single-electron transistors and quantum dots, which work by the interference of electron waves, larger amounts of interference energy are needed to cause disruptions. These single electron transistors even work better as they shrink in size !! Instead of making war with the inference energy, scientists actually make use of them.

The pace of improvements in computer performance is rapid. In the 1980s, computer performance doubled every one and a half years. In the late 1990s, computer performance doubled with periods of a single year !

If the pace continues, and computer technology continues improving even more rapidly by the day, computers matching human performance would be possible in more than a decade and human like robots will appear in the 2020s !!!



Would we actually do it ?

Even today, the current technology is just barely good enough (but possible) for us to create our own "digital human" should we want it badly enough. We mentioned that we are just a fraction away from building a computer system matching the processing power of the human brain. The main barrier involved was cost. Building a system that powerful would take hundreds of billions of dollars and not many investors would be willing to sponsor any enthusiastic researchers and scientists with that amount of money.
We would expect many of you to ask : Why wouldn't anybody be interested ?

First of all, why would we waste such a massive amount of money and human resource into building a single,
"fake " human when so many real life humans are already out in the populations ? It is jst not economical to the investor's pockets because the "product" would not be at all that useful.

The most powerful experimental super computers today are not used to research AI, or to imitate a human brain but are instead used for stimulations of real life events which are too complicated for normal calculations. While, they are powerful enough to do a partial imitation of the human brain, they will most likely not be used for that cause. This is again, because it is not economical. The investors and businessmen who funds such projects are not likely to waste their money on unproductive experiments that would cause so much.

While there are curious funders who pour money into AI and robotics projects that produces interesting results like a robot that can imitate a babie's curious behavouir, and robots that can create facial expressions themselves by responding to their "moods", such investors are rare and often invest only for fun and not for serious interest.

Until the cost of building a digital human brain is cheap enough, it will be hard to expect to see human-like robots walking around in the streets like in the movies any time soon.